Natto Thoughts: Policy & Strategy

Cybersecurity Strategy in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan

Natto Team — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:03:21 GMT

On March 12, 2026, the National People’s Congress approved the “Outline of the 15^th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (15^th FYP) of the People’s Republic of China” (中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要) (15^th FYP), the country’s highest-level development blueprint, which covers the years 2026 to 2030. Over the years, the Western cybersecurity industry, the US government and other private and public organizations have reported that China’s cyber operation targets are closely aligned with its strategic plans, including the FYP. Therefore, examining the strategic objectives in the FYPs is necessary to identify the likely intelligence requirements of China’s cyber operations. Meanwhile, the Natto Team has observed that China has incorporated relevant cybersecurity strategies into its FYPs since the 11th FYP (2006–2010) – from “strengthening the information safety (or security) guarantee” in the 11^th FYP to “strengthening network and information security” in the 12^th FYP, t…

Wargaming a China-Taiwan Conflict and Its Cyber Scenarios

Natto Team — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 14:03:25 GMT

This post is co-authored by the Natto Team and Robin Dimyanoglu from Predictive Defense.

Since the start of his second term in January 2025, the Trump administration has conducted military actions or strikes in seven countries. The ouster of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro in January 2026 and the ongoing US-Israeli joint military operation against Iran makes it feel as if the threshold for war has been lowered. Leaders across the globe are likely drawing their own conclusions. Bill Bishop, a China expert at Sinocism, remarked, “Maduro and now Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in two months. Would love to know what Xi really thinks about this,” referring to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Indeed, what does Xi think about these developments? In particular, how do they shape Xi’s views on Taiwan “reunification”? Have US military actions in seven countries influenced Xi’s perspective on using military force to achieve China’s goal of “reunification”—which he considers a “historical inevitability”?

A potential conflict between China and Taiwan would represent a globally significant inflection point. Drawing from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 2023 report The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, this piece aims to conduct a reality check on a likely scenario of China-Taiwan conflict presented in the CSIS report, and examines the challenges and possible cyber implications of such a scenario and how organizations across sectors could be exposed, whether directly or indirectly.

Based on war games involving a simulated invasion, the CSIS study provides insights under clearly defined assumptions, including participating actors and their roles, mobilization timelines, ammunition availability and the type of operations conducted. While no single study can predict outcomes, its transparent methodology and multi-scenario approach provide a useful analytical foundation.

Credit: Wikimedia Commons

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China’s Trump Cards for Trump 2.0

Natto Team — Wed, 13 Nov 2024 18:00:16 GMT

Chinese media are chattering about the result of the November 5 US presidential election, what comes next in US-China relations, and how to maneuver in uncertain times. Common themes emerge: “we (China) have seen this before”; there is “nothing to be afraid of”; and “we are ready to take the challenge.” To put this sentiment in perspective, it is worthwhile to look back five years to gain a better understanding of the Chinese government’s attitude toward a second term Trump presidency and the potential cyber implications in 2025.

Xi Jingping and Donald Trump have previously met four times. (AFP pic) Source: FMT

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China’s Three Trump Cards

During the high-tension US-China trade war in June 2019, Fan Yongpeng (范勇鹏), professor and deputy director of the China Institute at Fudan University, told the audience of the “This is China” TV talk show that China had three “trump cards” (王牌) to win that trade war. These three trump cards were: political autonomy; a complete industry and technology ecos…

Does China Have a Timeline for Taking Over Taiwan?

Natto Team — Fri, 26 Jan 2024 00:00:16 GMT

The results of Taiwan’s 2024 presidential elections on January 13 were not off too much from public opinion polls. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te, whom China did not favor, won the election with a plurality of 40.05%. Since the DPP is a party that promotes Taiwan’s independence, analysts have warned that a DPP victory could signal new risks: as Derek Grossman of the Rand Corporation wrote in 2021, Lai Ching-te’s presidency in Taiwan meant “the odds of China taking military action against Taiwan will only grow.” As a Lai presidency becomes a reality, so does the question: what are the real odds that China will take military action for “reunification” with Taiwan?

The Taiwan Affairs Office of China’s State Council issued a statement on election day on the results of the Taiwan election. The document appears to “downplay” the outcome of the election, as an analysis from the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) pointed out. The sta…

To Talk or Not to Talk: In US-China Communication Breakdown, Taiwan Question is the “Core of the Core”

Natto Team — Fri, 07 Jul 2023 03:30:34 GMT

Photo by Quino Al on Unsplash

“Communication is key” for all relationships, goes the old saying. This includes relationships between countries; at least the United States thinks so. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited China on June 18-19, which was the first visit by a top US official to that country in five years. His visit “emphasized the importance of maintaining open channels of communication across the full range of issues to reduce the risk of miscalculation.” However, his Chinese counterparts appeared uninterested in reviving dialogue, particularly military-to-military communication, anytime soon. Chinese explained this disinterest in terms of principle, saying that the country does not engage in “communication for the sake of communication,” and that communication should build upon “respecting each other and on an equal footing.” (hxxp://www.news[.]cn/2023-06/22/c_1129711459.htm)

Shen Weiguang – Father of China’s Information Warfare Theory, Who Could not Type

Natto Team — Fri, 09 Jun 2023 03:58:15 GMT

Note added August 7th 2024: This is a post the Natto Team published on June 8, 2023. It digs into archives and publications published 30 years ago to unveil stories about Shen Weiguang, one of the most prominent theorists in the field of information warfare. Shen's story illustrates Chinese thinking and approaches to technological advancement and its possible setbacks. These kinds of thinking and approaches are still relevant to China's information warfare strategy to present times.

The concept of Information warfare, which refers to an operation that uses and manages information and communication technology (ICT) to gain a competitive advantage over the opponent, was introduced in China in the mid 1980s when the country’s development of ICT was still in its infancy. Shen Weiguang (沈伟光), a former Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) major, was one of the most prominent theorists in the field of information warfare. Chinese media reports claim Shen was the first person in the world …