Natto Thoughts: Russia

Too Many Toads: Lost in Translation

Natto Team — Wed, 17 Apr 2024 16:01:21 GMT

toad with soap on a cart

As the Natto Team pointed out in a previous posting, understanding cyber threat actors is like solving a 1000-piece jigsaw puzzle; it works best when the whole cybersecurity community shares insights, clues and research ideas. The Natto Team has seen many great cyber threat intelligence reports that nevertheless feel frustrating. These reports provide screenshots and quotations that offer valuable glimpses of the methods and motives of cyber threat actors….but they contain outright mistakes because they rely on machine-translated text. Or they fail to provide dates and foreign-language original text that researchers with language and country knowledge can analyze. This is understandable: reports are often written under great time pressure, and laborious final tasks such as providing dates and original-language texts fall by the wayside. But without them, we are wasting valuable clues that could contribute to understanding and protecting against cyber threats.

W…

Soviet Echoes and the Ability to Change: Reflections on the Funeral of Russian Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny

Natto Team — Wed, 03 Apr 2024 16:01:07 GMT

After Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny died on February 16, 2024 in an Arctic prison at the far end of Russia, the authorities tried to strong-arm his mother into holding a quiet family funeral. “Because we’re afraid the morgue will be stormed” if the funeral were public, Navalny’s family was told, according to Navalny associate Ivan Zhdanov. After the family insisted on their legal right to bury him as they wished, the authorities relented and allowed a public burial.

Navalny and his Anti-Corruption Foundation have earned praise for their creative and persistent battles against Russia’s ruling party for years — from breaking into Russian TV stations and leafletting apartment entryways with anti-corruption messaging as part of the “Good Propaganda Machine” before the 2012 election; to flying drones over the walls of officials’ opulent palaces; to the Smart Voting initiative that urged citizens to back any candidate who stood a chance of defeating those of the ruling party; to …

BRICS Meeting, China- and Russia-Friendly Peace Activists, Bootleg “Barbie,” Aesopian Language, Prigozhin

Natto Team — Fri, 25 Aug 2023 03:25:05 GMT

BRICS Summit, a Big Deal for China

Chinese state media and state-affiliated commentators have given a great deal of attention to the 15^th BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa this week. BRICS is a grouping of states including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Before the opening of the summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived a day early and paid a state visit to South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa. On the eve of the visit, South Africa media published an article authored by Xi, entitled “Sailing the Giant Ship of China-South Africa: Friendship and Cooperation Toward Greater Success.” It was rare to see a signed article by Xi published in foreign media. In the article, Xi described China and South Africa as having “brotherly sentiments” toward each other. The relationship between the two countries “has achieved leapfrog development – from a partnership to a strategic partnership, and then to a comprehensive strategic partnership.” (Note: Russia is the…

Vocabulary of Mutiny, Mafia and Misery

Natto Team — Wed, 28 Jun 2023 12:44:33 GMT

Events of June 23-24 2023, when Russian mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin carried out a short-lived mutiny against the Russian military leadership, shocked the world. Previous Natto Thoughts reporting provided context on Prigozhin and his conflicts with the Russian establishment, as well as scenarios for civil war, coups and other turmoil.

As events involving Prigozhin, Putin, and Russia’s war on Ukraine evolve quickly, many reputable analysts provide ongoing news and insights. These include, among many others, the Institute for the Study of War; Russia Matters; the Jamestown Foundation; and analyses by Mark Galeotti, Tatiana Stanovaya, and Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan.

Here Natto Team highlights some Russian terms that have frequently popped up to help comprehend the events surrounding Prigozhin’s mutiny.

Bardak (бардак), lit. “brothel,” means a mess, often in a mild sense such as a disor…

It's Raining on Putin’s Victory Day Parade

Natto Team — Fri, 05 May 2023 02:11:35 GMT

Events already occurring in May 2023 illustrate the desperate situation Vladimir Putin’s government faces. Russian planners have scaled back the Victory Day holiday set for 9 May, usually an occasion to tout Russian military might and any geopolitical victories, amid battlefield losses and fears of a Ukrainian counterattack. However, Russian hackers have a history of conducting cyber operations pegged to this holiday, and despite the more subdued atmosphere, Russian asymmetric attacks against Ukraine and NATO members cannot be ruled out.

Victory Day parade on Red Square, 2014. Source: Kremlin[.]ru. Creative Commons

Little Cause to Boast on Victory Day

May 9 is Russia’s biggest national holiday, marking the anniversary of the Allied victory over Nazi Germany. Memory of that victory resonates with the population—nearly every family lost a member in that war—and has for decades served as a po…

Troll Humor

Natto Team — Fri, 21 Apr 2023 12:51:20 GMT

Note added August 14 2024: This is a post the Natto Team published on April 21, 2023. It looks at a Russian information operation from 2020 that posed as two networks of news sites — one with a far-right orientation and the other with a leftist one — whose very names were a crass inside joke for Russian-speakers. The Internet Research Agency — the troll farm that likely created the sites — subsequently closed down, but the personas and other infrastructure continue to produce divisive and pro-Russian messaging. Today’s so-called “Doppelgänger” campaign and other Russia-based efforts, some using artificial intelligence, target the US election, the Olympics in France, and global support for Ukraine. Iran, too, has created false news outlets appealing to people on different sides of the US political spectrum, Microsoft reported in 2024. Assessments vary on the effectiveness of these disinformation efforts, but strong political opposition has silenced many US disinformation researchers, e…

Russia After Putin: Dictatorship, Democracy, or Chaos?

Natto Team — Fri, 14 Apr 2023 05:05:58 GMT

Note added August 28 2024: This is a post the Natto Team published on April 14, 2023. It discussed possible scenarios for a post-Putin Russia— ranging from an orderly transition to chaos and civil war — and some collective memories of past traumas that may constrain outcomes. Events in the past year have made some scenarios less likely; for example, after the short-lived mutiny and death of mercenary leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin, would-be warlords will likely hesitate to challenge Putin. 

A few specific updates appear in italics in the text. However, the basic analysis here remains relevant. Putin’s rule remains brittle, and Putin’s projected confidence sometimes resembles desperation. Sometimes a regime that seems eternal can crumble.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not remain in power forever. Although rumors of his imminent physical or political demise may be exaggerated, sooner or later the Putin era in Russia will end. Analysts have put forth numerous scenarios for a post-Puti…

Stymied in Ukraine, Putin’s Government Resorts to Covert Sabotage and Panic-Mongering in the West

Natto Team — Mon, 10 Apr 2023 15:56:51 GMT

As Russia’s war on Ukraine grinds into its second year, much ink has been spilled in speculation on when and how it will end. Analysts debate how long Putin can cling to power. Rumors of severe health problems and impending death have appeared and disappeared repeatedly over the years. Some commentators speculate that the pressure of battlefield failures and sanctions-induced economic hardships will bring an end to Putin’s rule. Predictions of a post-Putin future range from optimistic hopes for a more-democratic government or new generation of capable leaders to more pessimistic scenarios involving a military junta, a bloody free-for-all among rival armed militias, or a dictatorship as bad as Putin’s. That is the subject for another essay.

For now, however, Putin seems determined to stay in power and continue the war, which he has portrayed as a war against the entire Western-dominated world order. Analysts assess Putin feels he has a mission to undo the humiliation of the Soviet break…

Putin: The Spy as Hero

Natto Team — Thu, 06 Apr 2023 20:50:14 GMT

Note added July 31 2024: This was our very first posting, back on April 6, 2023. It analyzed a popular Soviet spy movie that helps explain Vladimir Putin's mind games against a Western world he distrusts. We think it remains relevant today. Subsequent postings fleshed out some of these themes in more detail. For example, further detail on disinformation can be found in the three-part "Disinformation Handbook" beginning here.

Vladimir Putin’s identification card from the East German State Security Ministry (Stasi). Source: Wikimedia Commons.

If you grew up in the former Soviet Union, chances are you encountered a favorite holiday tradition, which continues in Russia to this day: watching the 1973 spy movie “Seventeen Moments of Spring.” Based on a book and TV series from the 1960s-1970s, this story of the fictional Max Otto von Stierlitz, a Soviet spy embedded in the German Nazi hierarchy in the closing months of the Second World War, evokes nostalgia in even the most cynical émigrés. Th…