Does China Have a Timeline for Taking Over Taiwan?

After a pro-independence candidate wins the election in Taiwan, China’s messaging reiterates the eventual goal of “reunification” – with force if necessary – but does not specify when.

The results of Taiwan’s 2024 presidential elections on January 13 were not off too much from public opinion polls. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te, whom China did not favor, won the election with a plurality of 40.05%. Since the DPP is a party that promotes Taiwan’s independence, analysts have warned that a DPP victory could signal new risks: as Derek Grossman of the Rand Corporation wrote in 2021, Lai Ching-te’s presidency in Taiwan meant “the odds of China taking military action against Taiwan will only grow.” As a Lai presidency becomes a reality, so does  the question: what are the real odds that China will take military action for “reunification” with Taiwan?

The Taiwan Affairs Office of China’s State Council issued a statement on election day on the results of the Taiwan election. The document appears to “downplay” the outcome of the election, as an analysis from the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) pointed out. The sta…