Russia After Putin: Dictatorship, Democracy, or Chaos?

Russia has little historical experience with democracy but vivid memories of times when political uncertainty spawned turmoil and violence. Fears of chaos will influence Russia's post-Putin future.

Note added August 28 2024: This is a post the Natto Team published on April 14, 2023. It discussed possible scenarios for a post-Putin Russia— ranging from an orderly transition to chaos and civil war — and some collective memories of past traumas that may constrain outcomes. Events in the past year have made some scenarios less likely; for example, after the short-lived mutiny and death of mercenary leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin, would-be warlords will likely hesitate to challenge Putin. 

A few specific updates appear in italics in the text. However, the basic analysis here remains relevant. Putin’s rule remains brittle, and Putin’s projected confidence sometimes resembles desperation. Sometimes a regime that seems eternal can crumble.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not remain in power forever. Although rumors of his imminent physical or political demise may be exaggerated, sooner or later the Putin era in Russia will end. Analysts have put forth numerous scenarios for a post-Puti…