Wargaming a China-Taiwan Conflict and Its Cyber Scenarios
China’s use of cyber strategies in a conflict with Taiwan is likely to follow a methodical, gradual approach
This post is co-authored by the Natto Team and Robin Dimyanoglu from Predictive Defense.
Since the start of his second term in January 2025, the Trump administration has conducted military actions or strikes in seven countries. The ouster of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro in January 2026 and the ongoing US-Israeli joint military operation against Iran makes it feel as if the threshold for war has been lowered. Leaders across the globe are likely drawing their own conclusions. Bill Bishop, a China expert at Sinocism, remarked, “Maduro and now Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in two months. Would love to know what Xi really thinks about this,” referring to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Indeed, what does Xi think about these developments? In particular, how do they shape Xi’s views on Taiwan “reunification”? Have US military actions in seven countries influenced Xi’s perspective on using military force to achieve China’s goal of “reunification”—which he considers a “historical inevitability”?
A potential conflict between China and Taiwan would represent a globally significant inflection point. Drawing from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 2023 report The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, this piece aims to conduct a reality check on a likely scenario of China-Taiwan conflict presented in the CSIS report, and examines the challenges and possible cyber implications of such a scenario and how organizations across sectors could be exposed, whether directly or indirectly.
Based on war games involving a simulated invasion, the CSIS study provides insights under clearly defined assumptions, including participating actors and their roles, mobilization timelines, ammunition availability and the type of operations conducted. While no single study can predict outcomes, its transparent methodology and multi-scenario approach provide a useful analytical foundation.
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