The Inevitability of Reunification: China’s View of Strategic Drivers for A Potential Taiwan Conflict
For China, Taiwan independence is a relic of the historical struggle between the Chinese people and foreign imperialists; peaceful unification would be ideal, but the use of force remains an option
During the May 2026 summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump characterized American arms sales to Taiwan as a “good negotiating chip.”1 This statement has heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. support for Taiwan, particularly as China’s People’s Liberation Army has increased its threatening behavior across the Taiwan Strait over the past 12 months. As the Natto Team discussed in the piece Wargaming a China-Taiwan Conflict and Its Cyber Scenarios, co-authored with Robin Dimyanoglu, Taiwan would face significant challenges in prevailing in a potential China-Taiwan conflict. In particular, U.S. political support and weapons supplies from the United States were two of the four essential conditions for Taiwan to withstand a hypothetical Chinese incursion, as identified by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in its 2023 report, The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, were.
A recent Financial Times article, Will Trump Abandon Taiwan?, examined this uncertainty. It noted that although President Trump has historically authorized record-breaking military equipment sales to the island, his recent rhetoric suggests that he may now view these provisions as bargaining chips in negotiations with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The arms package may remain in limbo until after a planned visit by Xi to Washington DC in September, some experts have suggested. These shifting signals have created significant anxiety in Taiwan, as officials worry that the United States might prioritize a grand bargain with China over its long-standing security commitments.
Meanwhile, Cheng Li-wun, chairperson of Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), has warned that Taiwan must not be treated as a “pawn” or as leverage by the United States and China.
In this piece, the Natto Team explores, from China’s perspective, the strategic drivers behind the “Taiwan issue,” as it is described in official Chinese terminology. We believe that understanding China’s strategic thinking in this context is essential for assessing the country’s possible strategies in both military conflict and cyberspace.
